University of Oulu

Ilya G. Usoskin, Comment on the paper by Popova et al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 176, 2018, Pages 69-71, ISSN 1364-6826, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.018

Comment on the paper by Popova et al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”

Saved in:
Author: Usoskin, Ilya G.1
Organizations: 1Space Climate Research Unit and Sodankyä Geophysical Observatory, 90014 Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: embargoed
Persistent link: http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2018082233898
Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2018
Publish Date: 2019-10-07
Description:

Abstract

The paper by Popova et al. presents an oversimplified mathematical model of solar activity with a claim of predicting/postdicting it for several millennia ahead/backwards. The work contains several flaws devaluating the results: (1) the method is unreliable from the point of view of signal processing (it is impossible to make harmonic predictions for thousands of years based on only 35 years of data) and lacks quality control; (2) the result of post-diction apparently contradicts the observational data. (3) theoretical speculations make little sense. To summarize, a multi-harmonic mathematical model, hardly related to full solar dynamo theory, is presented, which is not applicable to realistic solar conditions because of the significant chaotic/stochastic intrinsic component and strong non-stationarity of solar activity. The obtained result is apparently inconsistent with the data in the past and thus cannot be trusted for the future predictions.

see all

Series: Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics
ISSN: 1364-6826
ISSN-E: 1879-1824
ISSN-L: 1364-6826
Volume: 176
Pages: 69 - 71
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.018
OADOI: https://oadoi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.018
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 115 Astronomy and space science
Subjects:
Funding: This work was made in the framework of ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence (Academy of Finland, project no. 272157).
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 272157
Detailed Information: 272157 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/