Abstract

This article discusses the market potential estimation results at different stages of second-generation oxy-fuel technology for carbon capture and storage, where oxygen content is increased in order to increase efficiency and product life cycle. The article highlights the challenges to commercializing an energy technology with long development lead times. Challenges related to external market environment, regulations and market price for carbon dioxide (CO₂) also need to be resolved. The study is based on a second-generation oxy-CFB technology evaluation, SWOT analysis and product life-cycle estimation. The commercialization of second-generation oxy-fuel technology, estimated as a basis of oxy-CFB technology, is largely found to be dependent on technical, sociological and economical aspects related to the energy market environment. The CO₂ price in European Union (EU) emissions trading is currently below 10 €/ton, which does not favour investment in CCS. CO₂ storage also faces public opposition and EU directive limitations. The CO₂ price needs to be in the range of 30 €/ton by 2030, the estimated time of commercialization. Technological development or subsidies would also be required for the second-generation oxy-CFB power production concept to become viable. This is one of the critical factors in market deployment as the price development is influenced by several external factors, including the EU’s environmental policy, politics and public acceptance.