Abstract

Open source development contains contributions from both hired and volunteer software developers. Identification of this status is important when we consider the transferability of research results to the closed source software industry, as they include no volunteer developers. While many studies have taken the employment status of developers into account, this information is often gathered manually due to the lack of accurate automatic methods. In this paper, we present an initial step towards predicting paid and unpaid open source development using machine learning and compare our results with automatic techniques used in prior work. By relying on code source repository meta-data from Mozilla, and manually collected employment status, we built a dataset of the most active developers, both volunteer and hired by Mozilla. We define a set of metrics based on developers’ usual commit time pattern and use different classification methods (logistic regression, classification tree, and random forest). The results show that our proposed method identify paid and unpaid commits with an AUC of 0.75 using random forest, which is higher than the AUC of 0.64 obtained with the best of the previously used automatic methods.