University of Oulu

Hietaharju, P.; Ruusunen, M.; Leiviskä, K. Enabling Demand Side Management: Heat Demand Forecasting at City Level. Materials 2019, 12, 202.

Enabling demand side management : heat demand forecasting at city level

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Author: Hietaharju, Petri1; Ruusunen, Mika1; Leiviskä, Kauko1
Organizations: 1Control Engineering, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 4300, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.8 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2019
Publish Date: 2019-02-04


Implementation of new energy efficiency measures for the heating and building sectors is of utmost importance. Demand side management offers means to involve individual buildings in the optimization of the heat demand at city level to improve energy efficiency. In this work, two models were applied to forecast the heat demand from individual buildings up to a city-wide area. District heating data at the city level from more than 4000 different buildings was utilized in the validation of the forecast models. Forecast simulations with the applied models and measured data showed that, during the heating season, the relative error of the city level heat demand forecast for 48 h was 4% on average. In individual buildings, the accuracy of the models varied based on the building type and heat demand pattern. The forecasting accuracy, the limited amount of measurement information and the short time required for model calibration enable the models to be applied to the whole building stock. This should enable demand side management and lead to the predictive optimization of heat demand at city level, leading to increased energy efficiency.

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Series: Materials
ISSN: 1996-1944
ISSN-E: 1996-1944
ISSN-L: 1996-1944
Volume: 12
Issue: 2
Article number: 202
DOI: 10.3390/ma12020202
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 213 Electronic, automation and communications engineering, electronics
Funding: This research was funded by the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, TEKES through the project KLEI (40267/13) and the Academy of Finland through the project SEN2050 (287748).
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 287748
Detailed Information: 287748 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (