Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
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Author: | Aalto, J.1,2; Karjalainen , O.3; Hjort, J.3; |
Organizations: |
1Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 3Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland |
Format: | article |
Version: | published version |
Access: | open |
Online Access: | PDF Full Text (PDF, 2.8 MB) |
Persistent link: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201903209456 |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union,
2018
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Publish Date: | 2019-03-20 |
Description: |
AbstractMean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance‐blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region‐specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback. see all
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Series: |
Geophysical research letters |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN-E: | 1944-8007 |
ISSN-L: | 0094-8276 |
Volume: | 45 |
Issue: | 10 |
Pages: | 4889 - 4898 |
DOI: | 10.1029/2018GL078007 |
OADOI: | https://oadoi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007 |
Type of Publication: |
A1 Journal article – refereed |
Field of Science: |
1171 Geosciences 1172 Environmental sciences |
Subjects: | |
Academy of Finland Grant Number: |
285040 |
Detailed Information: |
285040 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) |
Copyright information: |
© 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |