University of Oulu

Jae Young Lee, Ho Kim, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, João Paulo Teixeira, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Christofer Åström, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Bing-Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Ala Overcenco, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo, Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability, Environment International, Volume 131, 2019, 105027, ISSN 0160-4120,

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

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Author: Young Lee, Jae1; Kim, Ho1; Gasparrini, Antonio2;
Organizations: 1Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
2Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
3School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
4Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
5School of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
6Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
7School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
8Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghi Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
9School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
10Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
11Climate Change Cluster, Faculty of Sciences, University of Technology–Sydney, Sydney, Australia
12Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
13School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
14Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University, Shanghai, China
15Hospital Vista Hermosa, Bogotá, Colombia
16Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
17Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
18Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
19Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
20Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
21Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
22School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin, Ireland
23Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
24Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
25Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
26Faculty of Health and Sport Science, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
27Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
28Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
29Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal
30EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
31Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
32Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FiSABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, Spain
33Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
34University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
35Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University, NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
36Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
37Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
38The Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
39Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
40Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R. Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
41Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
42Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 3.5 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2019
Publish Date: 2019-08-15


An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

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Series: Environment international
ISSN: 0160-4120
ISSN-E: 1873-6750
ISSN-L: 0160-4120
Volume: 131
Article number: 105027
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health
Funding: This study was supported by the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), and Future Planning. JL was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea as NRF-SNSF Researcher Exchange Program (NRF-2018K2A9A1A06086694). AG was supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1) and Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project no. 18-22125S. HO and EI were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant no IUT34-17). JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant no 266314 and 310372). MH and YH were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency. AT was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan (S18149).
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 266314
Detailed Information: 266314 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
310372 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (