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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability |
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| Author: | Young Lee, Jae1; Kim, Ho1; Gasparrini, Antonio2; |
| Organizations: |
1Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea 2Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK 3School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
4Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
5School of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada 6Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina 7School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China 8Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghi Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China 9School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia 10Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil 11Climate Change Cluster, Faculty of Sciences, University of Technology–Sydney, Sydney, Australia 12Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile 13School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China 14Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University, Shanghai, China 15Hospital Vista Hermosa, Bogotá, Colombia 16Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic 17Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic 18Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia 19Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden 20Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland 21Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France 22School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin, Ireland 23Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK 24Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy 25Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan 26Faculty of Health and Sport Science, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan 27Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico 28Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 29Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal 30EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal 31Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain 32Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FiSABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, Spain 33Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland 34University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland 35Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University, NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan 36Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA 37Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam 38The Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam 39Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran 40Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R. Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova 41Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia 42Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia |
| Format: | article |
| Version: | published version |
| Access: | open |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text (PDF, 3.5 MB) |
| Persistent link: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2019081524244 |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier,
2019
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| Publish Date: | 2019-08-15 |
| Description: |
AbstractAn increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. see all
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| Series: |
Environment international |
| ISSN: | 0160-4120 |
| ISSN-E: | 1873-6750 |
| ISSN-L: | 0160-4120 |
| Volume: | 131 |
| Article number: | 105027 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027 |
| OADOI: | https://oadoi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027 |
| Type of Publication: |
A1 Journal article – refereed |
| Field of Science: |
3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health |
| Subjects: | |
| Funding: |
This study was supported by the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), and Future Planning. JL was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea as NRF-SNSF Researcher Exchange Program (NRF-2018K2A9A1A06086694). AG was supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1) and Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project no. 18-22125S. HO and EI were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant no IUT34-17). JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant no 266314 and 310372). MH and YH were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency. AT was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan (S18149). |
| Academy of Finland Grant Number: |
266314 310372 |
| Detailed Information: |
266314 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) 310372 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) |
| Copyright information: |
© 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/). |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |