University of Oulu

A.G. Tlatov, A.A. Pevtsov, On the timing of the next great solar activity minimum, Advances in Space Research, Volume 60, Issue 5, 2017, Pages 1108-1114, ISSN 0273-1177,

On the timing of the next great solar activity minimum

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Author: Tlatov, A.G.1,2; Pevtsov, A.A.3,4
Organizations: 1Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk, Russia
2Kalmyk State University, Elista, Russia
3National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349, USA
4ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 0.4 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2017
Publish Date: 2019-10-03


The long-term variations in solar activity are studied using the dataset comprised of sunspot number and 14C radioisotope timeseries. We use a novel S200 index to identify possible past Grand Minima (GM). The Maunder, Oort, Wolf and Spörer Minima fall in phase with the minimum of S200 index. We also show GM develop in clusters, with a separation of about 400–600 years between individual GM. Extending these found similarities to modern solar activity, it is predicted that next grand solar minimum may occur in about ~ 2090 ± 20.

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Series: Advances in space research
ISSN: 0273-1177
ISSN-E: 1879-1948
ISSN-L: 0273-1177
Volume: 60
Issue: 5
Pages: 1108 - 1114
DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2017.05.009
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 115 Astronomy and space science
Funding: The work by A. Tlatov was partially supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant 15-12-20001 and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 15-02-03900). A.A.P. acknowledges the financial support by the Academy of Finland to the ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence (project No. 272157).
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 272157
Detailed Information: 272157 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license