University of Oulu

Emelyanova, A. (2019). Exploring the Future Population and Educational Dynamics in the Arctic: 2015 to 2050. Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 53, 1-24.

Exploring the future population and educational dynamics in the Arctic : 2015 to 2050

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Author: Emelyanova, Anastasia1
Organizations: 1Thule Institute & University of Arctic, University of Oulu
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 6.4 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Population Research Institute of The Family Federation of Finland, 2019
Publish Date: 2020-03-23


The Arctic is a geographical space surrounding the North Pole. It encompasses dozens of sub-national entities north of eight Arctic countries: Russia, Canada, Denmark, the United States, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. It is 20 million square kilometers land coverage settled with only 10 million people (2015). In the desire to learn more about the Arctic overall profile in population change, we aimed at producing cross-regional dataset covering all parts of the Arctic, and using it as a baseline for the cohort- component population projection. In this way, we model the future changes in the age, sex, and educational structure of sub-national populations, the latter reflecting the regional human capital. The projections are based on three alternative scenarios, taking into account regional characteristics (“Medium development”, “Arctic Boost”, and “Arctic Dip”). The results might be informative for those interested in the future dynamics of the Arctic population from 2015 forward to 2050.

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Series: Finnish yearbook of population research
ISSN: 1796-6183
ISSN-E: 1796-6191
ISSN-L: 1796-6183
Volume: 53
Pages: 1 - 24
DOI: 10.23979/fypr.70159
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 5141 Sociology
520 Other social sciences
Funding: Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria). A partial review was received from Wolfgang Lutz, Director of the World Population Program (POP) at IIASA while preparing the background working paper on population projections of the Arctic by levels of education.
Copyright information: © 2019 Anastasia Emelyanova. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.