University of Oulu

Tea Lallukka, Martta Kerkelä, Tiina Ristikari, Marko Merikukka, Heikki Hiilamo, Marianna Virtanen, Simon Øverland, Mika Gissler, Jaana I. Halonen, Determinants of long-term unemployment in early adulthood: A Finnish birth cohort study, SSM - Population Health, Volume 8, 2019, 100410, ISSN 2352-8273,

Determinants of long-term unemployment in early adulthood : a Finnish birth cohort study

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Author: Lallukka, Tea1,2; Kerkelä, Martta3,4; Ristikari, Tiina3,5;
Organizations: 1Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Finland
2Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
3National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Welfare, Children, Adolescents and Families Unit, Oulu, Finland
4Department of Psychiatry, Research Unit of Clinical Neuroscience, University of Oulu, Finland
5Research Centre for Child Psychiatry, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
6Department of Social Research, Social and Public Policy, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
7School of Educational Sciences and Psychology, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland
8Division of Physical and Mental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway
9Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Norway
10National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Information Services, Statistics and Registers Unit, Helsinki, Finland
11Karolinska Institute, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine, Stockholm, Sweden
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.3 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2019
Publish Date: 2020-03-31


Cumulative contributions of social and health-related determinants to long-term unemployment during early working life among young adults are poorly understood. Therefore, we used four cumulative indices of both parental and own social and health-related determinants of such unemployment among a cohort which comprised a complete census of children born in Finland in 1987. The cohort participants were registered in the Medical Birth Register, and they were followed-up through 2015 (N = 46 521). We calculated predicted probabilities for long-term unemployment (> 12 months) when participants were 25–28 years. Moreover, we examined whether the associations differed by unemployment at the municipal level.

During the follow-up, 4.5% of women and 7.1% of men experienced long-term unemployment. All cumulative indices of parental and own social and health-related determinants predicted the probability of long-term unemployment. The greatest probabilities were observed for own social determinants, both in municipalities with high and low unemployment although the probabilities were higher in the high-unemployment municipalities. Of the individual determinants, poor school performance showed the strongest association with long-term unemployment among women (OR 6.65, 95% CI 5.21–8.55) and men (OR 3.70, 95% CI 2.96–4.67), after adjusting for other own social determinants. The results highlight the importance of life course social equality in the prevention of long-term unemployment in early adulthood.

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Series: SSM. Population health
ISSN: 2352-8273
ISSN-E: 2352-8273
ISSN-L: 2352-8273
Volume: 8
Article number: 100410
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100410
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 5142 Social policy
Funding: The study was funded through the Alli Paasikivi Foundation, the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation, the National Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland and the Academy of Finland. TL and JIH were supported by the Academy of Finland [grant numbers 287488, 294096, and #319200], MK, TR, MG and MM were supported by the grant 288960 and consortium funding for the PSYCOHORTS.
Copyright information: © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (