University of Oulu

Anni E. Saunajoki, Juha P. Auvinen, Aini H. Bloigu, Markku J. Timonen, Sirkka M. Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Evaluating the 1-h post-load glucose level to predict future type 2 diabetes, Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Volume 160, 2020, 108009, ISSN 0168-8227,

Evaluating the 1-h post-load glucose level to predict future type 2 diabetes

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Author: Saunajoki, Anni E.1; Auvinen, Juha P.1,2,3; Bloigu, Aini H.1;
Organizations: 1Center for Life Course Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
2Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
3Healthcare and Social Services of Oulunkaari, Ii, Finland
4Healthcare and Social Services of Selänne, Pyhäjärvi, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 0.4 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2020
Publish Date: 2021-01-09


Aims: To evaluate the predictive ability of 2-h post-load glucose level in addition to fasting and 1-h glucose levels in predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Methods: We examined a prospective population-based cohort study of 654 subjects without type 2 diabetes at baseline. All subjects underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), with measurement of glucose at 0, 60, and 120 min at baseline, and after 12 years in a follow-up survey. We evaluated the predictive properties of fasting, 1- and 2-h post-load glucose levels by comparing the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: We found that 2-h glucose concentration in the prediction model with fasting and 1-h glucose levels did not significantly increase the predictability of type 2 diabetes compared to a model only including fasting and 1-h glucose levels (AUC 0.83 vs. AUC 0.82, respectively; p = 0.23). The area under the ROC curve was the largest for 1-h glucose level (AUC 0.81), compared to fasting (AUC 0.71; p < 0.01) and 2-h glucose levels (AUC 0.72; p = 0.01).

Conclusions: Adding 2-h glucose to the model with fasting and 1-h glucose levels did not improve the predictability of new onset type 2 diabetes.

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Series: Diabetes research and clinical practice
ISSN: 0168-8227
ISSN-E: 1872-8227
ISSN-L: 0168-8227
Volume: 160
Article number: 108009
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2020.108009
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine
Funding: This research was supported by State Research Financing of the Expert Responsibility area of Oulu. The study was supported by grants from Emil Aaltonen Foundation, Orion Research Foundation sr and Oulu Medical Research Foundation.
Copyright information: © 2020 Elsevier B.V. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license