University of Oulu

Hietaharju, P., Pulkkinen, J., Ruusunen, M., & Louis, J.-N. (2021). A stochastic dynamic building stock model for determining long-term district heating demand under future climate change. Applied Energy, 295, 116962.

A stochastic dynamic building stock model for determining long-term district heating demand under future climate change

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Author: Hietaharju, Petri1; Pulkkinen, Jari2; Ruusunen, Mika1;
Organizations: 1University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology, Control Engineering, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, P.O. Box 4300, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
2University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology, Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering, P.O. Box 4300, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 2.7 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2021
Publish Date: 2021-05-17


District heating networks will face major changes on the demand side resulting from future demographic change, building energy efficiency improvements and climate change in cities. A stochastic dynamic building stock model was developed to investigate the impact of climate change and renovation strategies on district heat demand. The model was applied to a representative city in Finland comprising 3880 real buildings with hourly-resolution data, for which heat demand scenarios for buildings were simulated up to 2050 using results from global and regional climate change models. The novel stochastic dynamic building stock model utilises the real building stock as a basis and considers demolition, construction of new buildings and renovation of existing buildings. It is used in the precised dynamic heat demand model (mean MAPE 7.7%) to calculate the future heat demand. Model outputs indicated that early adoption of building renovation will decrease long-term energy consumption by 3% for every 0.5% increase in the renovation rate by 2050. Increasing the yearly renovation rate from the current 1% to 3% could reduce the district heat demand by 22% (range 19–28%). Early adoption of building renovation could reduce the relative peak load by 50% compared with late adoption. Climate change will reduce the overall heat demand for district heating but will increase the annual relative daily variation from 3.6% to 4.5%, meaning that the peaks in heat demand will be more visible.

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Series: Applied energy
ISSN: 0306-2619
ISSN-E: 1872-9118
ISSN-L: 0306-2619
Volume: 295
Article number: 116962
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116962
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 212 Civil and construction engineering
213 Electronic, automation and communications engineering, electronics
218 Environmental engineering
Funding: This research was funded by the Academy of Finland through the project SEN2050 (287748) and the NEXUS4EU project (333076), and the Kolarctic CBC programme through the project Green Arctic Building (KO1089 GrAB), and the Business Finland through the project HOPE (3364/31/2020), and the University of Oulu Graduate School.
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 287748
Detailed Information: 287748 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
333076 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (