University of Oulu

Yrjö Perkkiö, Juha Auvinen, Markku Timonen, Jari Jokelainen, Nihkolas Valkeapää, Markku Koiranen, Juha Saltevo & Sirkka Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi (2021) Factors predicting 31-year survival among a population cohort in Northern Finland, International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 80:1, DOI: 10.1080/22423982.2021.1909334

Factors predicting 31-year survival among a population cohort in Northern Finland

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Author: Perkkiö, Yrjö1,2; Auvinen, Juha1,3; Timonen, Markku1,4;
Organizations: 1Center for Life Course Health Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
2Department of Primary Health Care in Lapland Central Hospital, Health Centre of Muonio-Enontekiö, Rovaniemi, Finland
3Health Center of Oulunkaari, Ii, Finland
4Unit of General Practice, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland
5Infrastructure for Population Studies, University of Oulu, Finland
6Lapland Central Hospital, Rovaniemi, Finland
7Central Finland Central Hospital, Jyväskylä, Finland
8Health Center of Selänne, Pyhäjärvi, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.7 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Informa, 2021
Publish Date: 2021-06-11


We evaluated the survival of a subarctic population and the significance of traditional risk factors for mortality, causes of death and their seasonal variation from the period of 1984–2014. By the end of 2014 (follow-up), 644 (34.4% from 1,869) participants had died (42.1% of cardiovascular causes, 22.4% of neoplastic diseases). The average age at death±SD was 74.6±11.4 years for women (n=284) and 70.2±12.0 years for men (n=360). After adjusting for baseline age, the major risk factors predicting death were male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54–2.10), current smoking (HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.58–2.17), obesity (HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.45–2.12), high blood pressure (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.24–1.72), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.36–1.93) and depression (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.21–2.14) at baseline.

The most common causes of death and the main risk factors predicting death in this population were the same as reported globally. Lifestyle factors had an important impact in predicting survival. The most common causes of death were the same for men and women. There was no significant difference in overall mortality rate between winter and summer, but cerebrovascular and pulmonary causes of death were more common during winter.

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Series: International journal of circumpolar health
ISSN: 1239-9736
ISSN-E: 2242-3982
ISSN-L: 1239-9736
Volume: 80
Issue: 1
Article number: 1909334
DOI: 10.1080/22423982.2021.1909334
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health
Funding: This work was supported by Center for Life Course Health Research, University of Oulu [1];Cultural Foundation of Finland [4];Health Centre of Muonio–Enontekiö [3]; and Northern Finland Health Care Foundation [2].
Copyright information: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.