Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities
Kelsey, Katharine C.; Højlund Pedersen, Stine; Leffler, A. Joshua; Sexton, Joseph O.; Feng, Min; Welker, Jeffrey M. (2020-12-28)
Kelsey, K.C., Pedersen, S.H., Leffler, A.J., Sexton, J.O., Feng, M. and Welker, J.M. (2021), Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities. Glob. Change Biol., 27: 1572-1586. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15505
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Kelsey, K.C., Pedersen, S.H., Leffler, A.J., Sexton, J.O., Feng, M. and Welker, J.M. (2021), Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities. Glob. Change Biol., 27: 1572-1586, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15505. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
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https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2021070140820
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
Tundra dominates two-thirds of the unglaciated, terrestrial Arctic. Although this region has experienced rapid and widespread changes in vegetation phenology and productivity over the last several decades, the specific climatic drivers responsible for this change remain poorly understood. Here we quantified the effect of winter snowpack and early spring temperature conditions on growing season vegetation phenology (timing of the start, peak, and end of the growing season) and productivity of the dominant tundra vegetation communities of Arctic Alaska. We used daily remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and daily snowpack and temperature variables produced by SnowModel and MicroMet, coupled physically based snow and meteorological modeling tools, to (1) determine the most important snowpack and thermal controls on tundra vegetation phenology and productivity and (2) describe the direction of these relationships within each vegetation community. Our results show that soil temperature under the snowpack, snowmelt timing, and air temperature following snowmelt are the most important drivers of growing season timing and productivity among Arctic vegetation communities. Air temperature after snowmelt was the most important control on timing of season start and end, with warmer conditions contributing to earlier phenology in all vegetation communities. In contrast, the controls on the timing of peak season and productivity also included snowmelt timing and soil temperature under the snowpack, dictated in part by the snow insulating capacity. The results of this novel analysis suggest that while future warming effects on phenology may be consistent across communities of the tundra biome, warming may result in divergent, community-specific productivity responses if coupled with reduced snow insulating capacity lowers winter soil temperature and potential nutrient cycling in the soil.
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