University of Oulu

Ghazi, B., Jeihouni, E., Kouzehgar, K. et al. Assessment of probable groundwater changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios through the wavelet–GEP model. Environ Earth Sci 80, 446 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09746-9

Assessment of probable groundwater changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios through the wavelet–GEP model

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Author: Ghazi, Babak1; Jeihouni, Esmaeil1; Kouzehgar, Kamran2;
Organizations: 1Department of Civil Engineering, Sofian Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sofian, Iran
2Department of Civil Engineering, Varzeghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Varzeghan, Iran
3Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: embargoed
Persistent link: http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2021081343253
Language: English
Published: Springer Nature, 2021
Publish Date: 2022-06-17
Description:

Abstract

The main objective of this research was to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the Tasuj Plain, Iran. To accomplish this, the values of precipitation for a near future period was projected through four general circulation models (GCM). Then, the groundwater level variations through the genetic expression programming (GEP) model were evaluated. The projection results indicated that the average annual precipitation with 33.55 mm in the base period would decline to 20.51, 20.11, and 19.14 mm under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. The values of the determination coefficient range from 0.92 to 0.99; the root mean square error between 0.12 and 0.61, and mean absolute error from 0.08 to 0.54 showed that in the forecasting of groundwater level through the GEP model, all models have acceptable results. The evaluation of groundwater level simulation demonstrated that the developed model through the precipitation and previous groundwater level performs better. Prediction of groundwater level for a future period based on climate change scenarios indicated that the average groundwater level in Tasuj Plain at the beginning of the period would experience a gradual reduction and would then increase very slightly to the end of the period. Overall, it was found that the declining precipitation under climate change has no significant impacts on the groundwater level in the Tasuj Plain, and other parameters like anthropogenic activities could be the primary reason for groundwater depletion.

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Series: Environmental earth sciences
ISSN: 1866-6280
ISSN-E: 1866-6299
ISSN-L: 1866-6280
Volume: 80
Issue: 12
Article number: 446
DOI: 10.1007/s12665-021-09746-9
OADOI: https://oadoi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09746-9
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1171 Geosciences
Subjects:
Copyright information: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Environ Earth Sci. The final authenticated version is available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09746-9.