University of Oulu

Alireza Sharifi, Rasoul Mirabbasi, Mohammad Ali Nasr-Esfahani, Ali Torabi Haghighi, Rouhollah Fatahi Nafchi, Quantify the impacts of anthropogenic changes and climate variability on runoff changes in central plateau of Iran using nine methods, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 603, Part C, 2021, 127045, ISSN 0022-1694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127045

Quantify the impacts of anthropogenic changes and climate variability on runoff changes in central plateau of Iran using nine methods

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Author: Sharifi, Alireza1; Mirabbasi, Rasoul1; Nasr-Esfahani, Mohammad Ali1;
Organizations: 1Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrekord University, Iran
2Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: embargoed
Persistent link: http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2021101951627
Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2021
Publish Date: 2023-10-11
Description:

Abstract

Quantification of affecting factors on river regime changes can be greatly helpful for water resources planning and management in the basin. Both anthropogenic changes and climate variability have affected rivers’ regime and led to considerable social and economic impacts. Observations in most parts of the world indicate that the hydrological cycle has been influenced by human activity besides of climate variability. In this study, 9 different methods which are divided into three general categories have been used to determine the impact of anthropogenic changes and climate variability on runoff changes in two watersheds in the central plateau of Iran, including Ghaleh-Shahrokh and Javanmardi watersheds. The results indicate that climate variability plays a dominant role in runoff decline in the Ghaleh-Shahrokh watershed, accounting for 60.2% of the total decrease, while human activities accounted for 39.8 %. In the Javanmardi watershed, anthropogenic changes played a dominant role in runoff decline, accounting for 77.1% (on average). In comparison, 22.9% (on average) of the decrease was attributable to climate variability. Sensitivity analysis of the annual mean runoff shows that precipitation plays a key role in runoff changes in both study areas. After precipitation, changes in potential evapotranspiration and temperature have the greatest impact on the annual mean runoff in the studied watersheds, respectively. Comparison of the different applied methods indicate that elasticity-based methods are the fastest and intuitive methods to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic changes and climate variability on runoff changes. Despite this, using different methods should be taken into account.

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Series: Journal of hydrology
ISSN: 0022-1694
ISSN-E: 1879-2707
ISSN-L: 0022-1694
Volume: 603
Issue: Part C
Article number: 127045
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127045
OADOI: https://oadoi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127045
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1171 Geosciences
Subjects:
Copyright information: © 2021 Elsevier B.V. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/