University of Oulu

Danandeh Mehr, A., Hrnjica, B., Bonacci, O. et al. Innovative and successive average trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Osijek, Croatia. Theor Appl Climatol 145, 875–890 (2021).

Innovative and successive average trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Osijek, Croatia

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Author: Danandeh Mehr, Ali1; Hrnjica, Bahrudin2; Bonacci, Ognjen3;
Organizations: 1Department of Civil Engineering, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya, Turkey
2Faculty of Technical Engineering, University of Bihać, Bihać, Bosnia and Herzegovina
3Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, Split University, Split, Croatia
4Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, 90570, Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 0.4 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Springer Nature, 2021
Publish Date: 2022-06-05


This paper examines monthly, seasonal, and annual trends in temperature and precipitation time series in Osijek during the period between 1900 and 2018. Two new methods, innovative trend analysis (ITA) and successive average methodology (SAM), together with the classic Mann–Kendall (M–K) and Sen’s slope methods, have been applied to determine potential trends in the variables at different time scales. Moreover, time series decomposition using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (STL) was conducted to determine trend, seasonality, and the relationship between the components of each variable. Regarding the air temperature, ITA showed a monotonic positive trend at relatively low (T ≤ 10 °C) and high (T ≥ 13 °C) temperature ranges in all seasons, excluding spring. A positive trend was also found in the medium temperature range in this season, which agrees with the results of M–K test. The highest Sen’s slope was obtained in January, with the second highest in April. According to the results acquired for the observed precipitation time series, it was discovered that Osijek has experienced a decreasing trend in spring precipitation. However, there is no trend in annual precipitation at a 5% significance level. Differing from the M–K results, the ITA shows a decreasing trend in both spring and autumn seasons. Summer precipitation increases with a significant change in the high precipitating levels (p ≥ 100 mm). Comparing successive pairs of partial trends in both historical temperature and precipitation, our results show that trends in peak and trough change-points are very close to each other, indicating a slight positive trend in temperature and a negative change in precipitation over the past century.

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Series: Theoretical and applied climatology
ISSN: 0177-798X
ISSN-E: 1434-4483
ISSN-L: 0177-798X
Volume: 145
Issue: 3-4
Pages: 875 - 890
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03672-3
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1171 Geosciences
Copyright information: © Springer-Verlag Wien 2021. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Theor Appl Climatol. The final authenticated version is available online at: