Abstract

Water scarcity is increasing worldwide due to population growth and climate variability/change.

As a supplementary water resource, Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is a possible solution for dealing with water scarcity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions with considerable water demand and high variability in precipitation and unexpected extreme events (floods and droughts). The success of RWH systems significantly depends on the location of RWH structures and usually selecting suitable sites is challenging for decision-makers and managers. This paper presents an approach for mapping suitable sites for RWH structures using socio-environmental variables and artificial intelligence algorithms (AIAs). Based on FAO recommendations, the most important conditioning variables for RWH systems are elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, temperature, distance from the river, curve number (CN), land use, geology, soil type, population density, distance from road, and distance from lakes. An ensemble model was developed based on AIAs, socio-environmental variables, and existing RWH projects, and used for RWH suitability mapping in the large Maharloo-Bakhtegan basin, Iran. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kappa index. Using the best-performing model, threshold values for conditioning variables were determined from probability curves (PC). The results showed that land use, precipitation, soil type, CN and slope were the most important variables for RHW sites, with the lowest correlation and autocorrelation. The suitability map indicated that 9.7% (3070 km²) of Maharloo-Bakhtegan basin had very high suitability for RWH systems. Thus, in RWH suitability mapping for large area, climate, hydrological, geological, agricultural, topographical, human and socio-economic parameters should be considered to enable efficient RWH planning. Probability curves revealed that the optimum parameter range (α) in Maharloo-Bakhtegan basin was precipitation 357–428 mm, temperature 12.80–15.16 °C, slope 3–6%, elevation 1612–1975 m asl, distance from lake 32–45 km, distance from river 11.4–15.9 km, distance from road 2.59–4.80 km. The RWH suitability map presented can assist decision-makers, hydrologists, and natural resources planners in finding suitable locations for constructing RWH systems.