University of Oulu

Keskitalo E, Salonen J, Vähänikkilä H, et al. Survival of patients with asbestosis can be assessed by risk-predicting models. Occupational and Environmental Medicine 2021;78:516-521.

Survival of patients with asbestosis can be assessed by risk-predicting models

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Author: Keskitalo, Eerika1,2; Salonen, Johanna1,2; Vähänikkilä, Hannu3;
Organizations: 1Research Unit of Internal Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
2Medical Research Center (MRC) Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland
3Infrastructure for Population Studies, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 0.2 MB)
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Language: English
Published: BMJ, 2021
Publish Date: 2022-01-12


Objectives: Our aim was to investigate the pulmonary function test (PFT) results of patients with asbestosis and determine whether baseline PFTs and the risk-predicting models such as gender, age and physiologic (GAP) variables model and composite physiologic index (CPI) would be useful in predicting survival in these patients.

Methods: Demographics and PFTs of 100 patients with asbestosis were evaluated. The survival difference between the GAP stages was determined with Kaplan-Meier survival curves with statistical significance analysed with log-rank test. The suitability of the risk-predicting models and baseline PFTs to predict the survival of patients was analysed with Cox regression.

Results: At baseline, the mean value of diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was 65%; for forced vital capacity it was 81%, with restrictive lung function being the most common impairment. The median estimated survival of the patients was 124 months, that is, 171 months in GAP stage I, 50 months in stage II and 21 months in stage III (p<0.001). CPI, DLCO% predicted, age at baseline and GAP stage were significant predictors of mortality (all p values under 0.001).

Conclusions: GAP and CPI as well as baseline DLCO% predicted were significant parameters in the evaluation of the prognosis of the patients with asbestosis; they may be useful in clinical practice when considering treatment strategies of individual patients.

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Series: Occupational and environmental medicine
ISSN: 1351-0711
ISSN-E: 1470-7926
ISSN-L: 1351-0711
Volume: 78
Pages: 516 - 521
DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2020-106819
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine
Copyright information: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. This article has been accepted for publication in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2021 following peer review, and the Version of Record can be accessed online at