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Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity |
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| Author: | Wilfahrt, Peter A.1; Asmus, Ashley L.1; Seabloom, Eric W.1; |
| Organizations: |
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55108 USA 2Department of Biology, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama, 36688 USA 3Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 USA
4Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, M1C 1A4 Canada
5School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 98195 USA 6Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, 50011 USA 7Department of Plant Biology and Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 48824 USA 8Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, M1C 1A4 Canada 9Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), CONICET – UNMDP, Mar del Plata, Argentina 10Department of Biology, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, 04103 Germany 11School of Biology & Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000 Australia 12Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany 13Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, am Kirchtor 1, Halle (Saale), 06108 Germany 14Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 The Netherlands 15School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, 3209 South Africa 16Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, Maryland, 21037 USA 17Department of Biology, Doane University, Crete, Nebraska, 68333 USA 18Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1 Canada 19Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, 40546 USA 20School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3800 Australia 21Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, 3086 Australia 22Department of Biology, Benedictine College, Atchison, Kansas, 66002 USA 23Department of Biology, University of Cádiz, Cádiz, 11001 Spain 24Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 87131 USA 25Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, University of Western Sydney, Penrith, New South Wales, 2751 Australia 26Institute of Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2678 Australia 27Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, 8903 Switzerland 28Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071 USA 29Lancaster Environment Center, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ UK 30Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30602 USA 31IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina 32Department of Biology, University of Oulu, Oulu, 90570 Finland |
| Format: | article |
| Version: | published version |
| Access: | open |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.4 MB) |
| Persistent link: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe202201199475 |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
John Wiley & Sons,
2021
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| Publish Date: | 2022-01-19 |
| Description: |
AbstractSpatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone. see all
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| Series: |
Ecology |
| ISSN: | 0012-9658 |
| ISSN-E: | 1939-9170 |
| ISSN-L: | 0012-9658 |
| Volume: | 102 |
| Issue: | 11 |
| Article number: | e03504 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/ecy.3504 |
| OADOI: | https://oadoi.org/10.1002/ecy.3504 |
| Type of Publication: |
A1 Journal article – refereed |
| Field of Science: |
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology |
| Subjects: | |
| Funding: |
This work was generated using data from the Nutrient Network (http://www.nutnet.org) experiment, funded at the site-scale by individual researchers. Coordination and data management have been supported by funding to E. Borer and E. Seabloom from the National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (NSF-DEB-1042132) and Long Term Ecological Research (NSF-DEB-1234162 and NSF-DEB-1831944 to Cedar Creek LTER) programs, and the Institute on the Environment (DG-0001-13). A. Eskelinen was supported by the Academy of Finland (297191). |
| Academy of Finland Grant Number: |
297191 |
| Detailed Information: |
297191 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) |
| Copyright information: |
© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America. |