University of Oulu

Brlík, V., Pakanen, VM., Jaakkonen, T. et al. Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird. Sci Rep 12, 19830 (2022).

Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird

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Author: Brlík, Vojtěch1,2; Pakanen, Veli-Matti3,4; Jaakkonen, Tuomo3,5;
Organizations: 1Department of Ecology, Charles University, Viničná 7, 12844, Prague, Czech Republic
2Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Květná 8, 60365, Brno, Czech Republic
3Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014, Oulu, Finland
4Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, 405 30, Göteborg, Sweden
5Vietnam-Finland International School, Ton Duc Thang University, 01, D1 Street, District 7, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
6Helsinki, Finland
7Heikki Arppe is deceased
8School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box-111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland
9Department of Bird Migration, Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
10Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 17, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 2.2 MB)
Persistent link:
Language: English
Published: Springer Nature, 2022
Publish Date: 2022-11-30


Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture–recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31–33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

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Series: Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
ISSN-E: 2045-2322
ISSN-L: 2045-2322
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Article number: 19830
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24141-5
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
Funding: TJ. was supported by the Finnish Cultural foundation. V.B. was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant no. 20-00648S) and D.B. by Stiftelsen Olle Engkvist Byggmästare. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their critical comments. We thank Biodiversity Anthropocenes for funding article processing charges.
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