University of Oulu

Päivi Lujala, Philippe Le Billon, Nicolas Gaulin; Phasing Out Fossil Fuels: Determinants of Production Cuts and Implications for an International Agreement. Global Environmental Politics 2022; 22 (4): 95–128. doi:

Phasing out fossil fuels : determinants of production cuts and implications for an international agreement

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Author: Lujala, Päivi1; Le Billon, Philippe2; Gaulin, Nicolas3
Organizations: 1University of Oulu, Finland
2University of British Columbia
3Wageningen University
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 0.4 MB)
Persistent link:
Language: English
Published: MIT Press, 2022
Publish Date: 2022-12-08


Fossil fuel producers have a major role to play in curbing greenhouse gas emissions through supply-side initiatives. Yet, no study has systematically assessed the determinants of efforts to constrain fossil fuel production for climate purposes. To contribute to climate change mitigation efforts, this article develops a conceptual framework for factors potentially affecting country-level initiatives to keep fossil fuels in the ground. Using data for 124 countries with fossil fuel reserves for 2006–2019 and multivariate Poisson regression analysis, we identify factors influencing the use of such constraints by national governments. Results show that although dependence on fossil fuel rents reduces the likelihood of constraint measures, the size of fossil fuel reserves or production does not impact it. Richer countries are also more likely to use constraints. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries membership constitutes a barrier to having moratoria on fossil fuel extraction. These results can help identify potential members for new fossil fuel supply-side initiatives and coalitions.

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Series: Global environmental politics
ISSN: 1526-3800
ISSN-E: 1536-0091
ISSN-L: 1526-3800
Volume: 22
Issue: 4
Pages: 95 - 128
DOI: 10.1162/glep_a_00683
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1172 Environmental sciences
517 Political science
519 Social and economic geography
Funding: This work has been supported by the Academy of Finland (grants 322097, 309206) and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
Academy of Finland Grant Number: 322097
Detailed Information: 322097 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
309206 (Academy of Finland Funding decision)
Copyright information: © 2022 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology