University of Oulu

Soghra Andaryani, Vahid Nourani, Biswajeet Pradhan, Tahereh Jalali Ansarudi, Farnaz Ershadfath & Ali Torabi Haghighi (2022) Spatiotemporal evaluation of future groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 67:6, 979-995, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2022.2050732

Spatiotemporal evaluation of future groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios

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Author: Andaryani, Soghra1,2; Nourani, Vahid1,3; Pradhan, Biswajeet4,5,6;
Organizations: 1Center of Excellence in Hydroinformatics and Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark
3Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Near East University, Mersin, Turkey
4Center for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS), Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia
5Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia
6Earth Observation Center, Institute of Climate Change, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
7Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
8Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
9Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
10Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, 90570, Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: accepted version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 3 MB)
Persistent link:
Language: English
Published: Informa, 2022
Publish Date: 2023-01-17


In this study, the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP3.8D) model was developed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of potential groundwater recharge (GWR) in Tasuj aquifer, northwestern Iran. High-resolution future climatic data from second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) general circulation models (GCMs) was produced under different scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The analysis of climate parameters demonstrated that under RCP2.6, climatic variation will be substantially similar to that of the observed period (1961–2005), while moderate and severe droughts are anticipated under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, over 2017–2030. The projection results showed that GWR will be altered by climate change, on average, from 31 mm/year at baseline to 32 (+3%), 28.5 (−8%) and 11.5 (−63%) mm/year under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This approach can be easily replicated by other researchers and could be beneficial for monitoring water security and managing groundwater resources in other catchment areas.

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Series: Hydrological sciences journal
ISSN: 0262-6667
ISSN-E: 2150-3435
ISSN-L: 0262-6667
Volume: 67
Issue: 6
Pages: 979 - 995
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2022.2050732
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 218 Environmental engineering
Funding: This work was supported by Iran’s National Elites Foundation (INEF) and the University of Tabriz [grant agreement 15/7806] to SA.
Copyright information: © 2022 IAHS. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 25 Apr 2022, available at: