Abstract

Climate change represents a threat to narrow-ranged mountain species living in low-altitude massifs. We studied the disjunct Apennine population of Lasiommata petropolitana (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) in the Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga National Park. We quantified the altitudinal shifts undergone in the last decades (1964–2021) in the Alps and Apennines and estimated the local extinction risk due to climate change. We also sequenced the COI mitochondrial marker of seven Apennine specimens, comparing them with those available across the Palearctic. We projected the probability of presence for the species under a future climatic scenario using an ensemble forecasting approach. We found that, despite geographical isolation, the Apennine population of L. petropolitana displays a single widespread COI haplotype also occurring in most European populations. In the Alps and Apennines, this species has shifted uphill an average of 6.3 m per year since 1964. Accordingly, our model predicted a likely extinction in the Apennines by about 2060, due to a reduction of the climatic suitability in this region.

Implications for insect conservation: Implications for insect conservation Despite its potential loss in the Apennines would not erode mitochondrial diversity, L. petropolitana characterises the butterfly community of the Gran Sasso massif as an alpine enclave. The loss of the Apennine population, together with those of other orophilous butterflies, could trigger a homogenization of alpha and beta diversity and induce a loss of functional diversity in the impoverished high-altitude biotas. As habitat heterogeneity is a key aspect for populations to endure climate change, the maintenance of varied microhabitats, mainly through grazing management, could address the decline of this population.