University of Oulu

Khadijeh Sadri, Hossein Aminikhah, Mahdi Aminikhah, A mathematical system of COVID-19 disease model: Existence, uniqueness, numerical and sensitivity analysis, MethodsX, Volume 10, 2023, 102045, ISSN 2215-0161,

A mathematical system of COVID-19 disease model : existence, uniqueness, numerical and sensitivity analysis

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Author: Sadri, Khadijeh1; Aminikhah, Hossein2,3; Aminikhah, Mahdi4
Organizations: 1Department of Mathematics, Near East University TRNC, Mersin 10, Nicosia, 99138, Turkey
2Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Guilan, P.O. Box 1914, Rasht, 41938, Iran
3Center of Excellence for Mathematical Modelling, Optimization and Combinational Computing (MMOCC), University of Guilan, P.O. Box 1914, Rasht, 41938, Iran
4Department of Ecology and Genetics, PO Box 3000, FI-90014 University of Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 3.4 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Elsevier, 2023
Publish Date: 2023-05-08


A compartmental mathematical model of spreading COVID-19 disease in Wuhan, China is applied to investigate the pandemic behaviour in Iran. This model is a system of seven ordinary differential equations including individual behavioural reactions, governmental actions, holiday extensions, travel restrictions, hospitalizations, and quarantine. We fit the Chinese model to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran and estimate the values of parameters by trial-error approach. We use the Adams-Bashforth predictor-corrector method based on Lagrange polynomials to solve the system of ordinary differential equations. To prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the model we use Banach fixed point theorem and Picard iterative method. Also, we evaluate the equilibrium points and the stability of the system. With estimating the basic reproduction number R₀, we assess the trend of new infected cases in Iran. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of the model is assessed by allocating different parameters to the system. Numerical simulations are depicted by adopting initial conditions and various values of some parameters of the system.

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Series: MethodsX
ISSN: 2215-0161
ISSN-E: 2215-0161
ISSN-L: 2215-0161
Volume: 10
Article number: 102045
DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2023.102045
Type of Publication: A2 Review article in a scientific journal
Field of Science: 3111 Biomedicine
Copyright information: © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (