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Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole |
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| Author: | Ran, Youhua1; Cheng, Guodong1,2; Dong, Yuanhong3; |
| Organizations: |
1Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China 2State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China 3State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., LTD, Xi’an, 710075, China
4Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 8000, FI-90014, Oulu, Finland
5Center for Arctic Policy Studies, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 99775, Fairbanks, AK, USA |
| Format: | article |
| Version: | published version |
| Access: | open |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text (PDF, 2.2 MB) |
| Persistent link: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2023062057300 |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Nature,
2022
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| Publish Date: | 2023-06-20 |
| Description: |
AbstractThe damage to infrastructure caused by near-surface permafrost degradation is directly related to the well-being of 10 million people and the sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Third Pole of the Earth. Here we identify the economic damage caused by permafrost degradation to infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by integrating data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement model. We found that additional cost of approximately $6.31 billion will be needed to maintain the service function of current infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) by 2090. While 20.9% of these potential costs can be saved with strategic adaptations. Controlling global warming to below 1.5 °C will reduce the costs by $1.32 billion relative to the 2 °C target of Paris Agreement. These findings highlight the importance of mitigating global warming and of investment in the adaptation and maintenance of infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has a sparse population but is a climate hotspot. see all
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| Series: |
Communications earth & environment |
| ISSN: | 2662-4435 |
| ISSN-E: | 2662-4435 |
| ISSN-L: | 2662-4435 |
| Volume: | 3 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Article number: | 238 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6 |
| OADOI: | https://oadoi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6 |
| Type of Publication: |
A1 Journal article – refereed |
| Field of Science: |
519 Social and economic geography 1172 Environmental sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Funding: |
This study was jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant number XDA19070204) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China projects (grant numbers 42071421). JH received funding from the Academy of Finland (grant number 315519). |
| Academy of Finland Grant Number: |
315519 |
| Detailed Information: |
315519 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) |
| Copyright information: |
© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |