University of Oulu

Samarasinghe JT, Wickramarachchi CP, Makumbura RK, Meddage P, Gunathilake MB, Muttil N, Rathnayake U. Performances of Holiday Climate Index (HCI) for Urban and Beach Destinations in Sri Lanka under Changing Climate. Climate. 2023; 11(3):48.

Performances of holiday climate index (HCI) for urban and beach destinations in Sri Lanka under changing climate

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Author: Samarasinghe, Jayanga T.1; Wickramarachchi, Charuni P.2; Makumbura, Randika K.3;
Organizations: 1Department of Earth Environmental and Resource Sciences, University of Texas, El Paso, TX 79968, USA
2IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands
3Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Katubedda 10400, Sri Lanka
4The School of Engineering & Information Technology, University of New South Wales, Northcott Drive, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia
5Hydrology and Aquatic Environment, Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy and Research, 1433 Ås, Norway
6Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Faculty of Technology, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 8000, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
7Institute for Sustainable Industries & Liveable Cities, Victoria University, P.O. Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia
8College of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, P.O. Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia
9Department of Civil Engineering and Construction, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Atlantic Technological University, F91 YW50 Sligo, Ireland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 7.2 MB)
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Language: English
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2023
Publish Date: 2023-09-06


Climate change has had a significant impact on the tourism industry in many countries, leading to changes in policies and adaptations to attract more visitors. However, there are few studies on the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and income, despite its importance as a destination for tourists. A study was conducted to analyze the holiday climate index (HCI) for Sri Lanka’s urban and beach destinations to address this gap. The analysis covered historical years (2010–2018) and forecasted climatic scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), and the results were presented as colored maps to highlight the importance of HCI scores. Visual analysis showed some correlation between HCI scores and tourist arrivals, but the result of the overall correlation analysis was not significant. However, a country-specific correlation analysis revealed interesting findings, indicating that the changing climate can be considered among other factors that impact tourist arrivals. The research proposes that authorities assess the outcomes of the study and conduct further research to develop adaptive plans for Sri Lanka’s future tourism industry. The study also investigated potential scenarios for beach and urban destinations under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the near and far future, presenting the findings to tourism industry stakeholders for any necessary policy changes. As Sri Lanka expects more Chinese visitors in the future due to ongoing development projects, this study could be valuable for policymakers and industry stakeholders when adapting to changing climate and future tourist behavior. While more research is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, this study serves as a starting point for future investigations.

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Series: Climate
ISSN: 2225-1154
ISSN-E: 2225-1154
ISSN-L: 2225-1154
Volume: 11
Issue: 3
Article number: 48
DOI: 10.3390/cli11030048
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1171 Geosciences
Copyright information: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (