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Halupka, L., Arlt, D., Tolvanen, J., Millon, A., Bize, P., Adamík, P., Albert, P., Arendt, W. J., Artemyev, A. V., Baglione, V., Bańbura, J., Bańbura, M., Barba, E., Barrett, R. T., Becker, P. H., Belskii, E., Bolton, M., Bowers, E. K., Bried, J., … Halupka, K. (2023). The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(19), e2208389120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production : a global meta-analysis

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Author: Halupka, Lucyna1; Arlt, Debora2,3; Tolvanen, Jere4;
Millon, Alexandre5; Bize, Pierre6; Adamik, Peter7,8; Albert, Pascal; Arendt, Wayne J.9; V. Artemyev, Alexander10; Baglione, Vittorio11; Banbura, Jerzy12; Banbura, Miroslawa12; Barba, Emilio13; Barrett, Robert T.14; Becker, Peter H.15; Belskii, Eugen16; Bolton, Mark17; Bowers, E. Keith18,19; Bried, Joel20; Brouwer, Lyanne21,22; Bukacinska, Monika23; Bukacinski, Dariusz23; Bulluck, Lesley24,25; Carstens, Kate F.26; Catry, Ines27,28,29; Charter, Motti30,31; Chernomorets, Anna32; Covas, Rita26,27,29; Czuchra, Monika33; Dearborn, Donald C.34,35; de Lope, Florentino36; Di Giacomo, Adrian S.37; Dombrovski, Valery C.38; Drummond, Hugh39; Dunn, Michael J.40; Eeva, Tapio41; Emmerson, Louise M.42; Espmark, Yngve43; Fargallo, Juan A.44; Gashkov, Sergey I.45; Golubova, Elena Yu.46; Griesser, Michael47,48,49; Harris, Michael P.50; Hoover, Jeffrey P.51; Jagielio, Zuzanna52; Korell, Patrik53,54; Kloskowski, Janusz52; Koenig, Walter D.55,56; Kolunen, Heikki; Korczak-Abshire, Magorzata57; Korpimaeki, Erkki41; Krams, Indrikis58,59,60; Krist, Milos7,8; Kruger, Sonja C.61,62; Kuranov, Boris D.63; Lambin, Xavier64; Lombardo, Michael P.65; Lyakhov, Andrey16; Marzal, Alfonso36; Moller, Anders P.66; Neves, Veronica C.; Nielsen, Jan Tottrup; Numerov, Alexander67; Orlowska, Beata1; Oro, Daniel68; oest, Markus69,70; Phillips, Richard A.40; Pietiaeinen, Hannu71; Polo, Vicente72; Porkert, Jiri; Potti, Jaime73; Poeysae, Hannu74; Printemps, Thierry75; Prop, Jouke76; Quillfeldt, Petra77; Ramos, Jaime A.78; Ravussin, Pierre-Alain; Rosenfield, Robert N.79; Roulin, Alexandre80; Rubenstein, Dustin R.81; Samusenko, Irina E.32; Saunders, Denis A.; Schaub, Michael64,82; Senar, Juan C.83; Sergio, Fabrizio73; Solonen, Tapio84; V. Solovyeva, Diana46; Stepniewski, Janusz85; Thompson, Paul M.86; Tobolka, Marcin52,87; Toeroek, Janos88,89; van de Pol, Martijn90,91; Vernooij, Louis90; Visser, Marcel E.90; Westneat, David F.92; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.93; Wiacek, Jaroslaw94; Wiebe, Karen L.95; Wood, Andrew G.40; Wuczynski, Andrzej96; Wysocki, Dariusz97; Zarybnicka, Marketa98; Margalida, Antoni99,100; Halupka, Konrad33
Organizations: 1Univ Wroclaw, Fac Biol Sci, Ornithol Stn, PL-50335 Wroclaw, Poland.
2Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Ecol, S-SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden.
3Swedish Univ Agr Sci, SLU Swedish Species Informat Ctr, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden.
4Univ Oulu, Dept Ecol & Genet, Oulu 90014, Finland.
5Univ Avignon, Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Inst Rech Dev IRD,Inst Mediterraneen Biodivers &, F-13545 Aix En Provence, France.
6Swiss Ornithol Inst, CH-6204 Sempach, Switzerland.
7Palacky Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Zool, Olomouc 77146, Czech Republic.
8Museum Nat Hist, Olomouc 77173, Czech Republic.
9US Forest Serv, USDA, Int Inst Trop Forestry, Sabana Field Res Stn, Luquillo, PR 00773 USA.
10Russian Acad Sci, Karelian Res Ctr, Inst Biol, Dept Zool, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia.
11Univ Leon, Dept Biodiversidad & Gest Ambiental, E-24071 Leon, Spain.
12Univ Lodz, Fac Biol, Dept Expt Zool & Evolutionary Biol, PL-90237 Lodz, Poland.
13Univ Valencia, Cavanilles Inst Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol, E-46080 Valencia, Spain.
14Tromso Univ Museum, Dept Nat Sci, NO-9037 Tromso, Norway.
15Inst Avian Res Vogelwarte Helgoland, Head Off Wilhelmshaven, D-26386 Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
16Russian Acad Sci, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ural Branch, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia.
17Royal Soc Protect Birds, Ctr Conservat Sci, Aberdeen AB10 1YP, Scotland.
18Univ Memphis, Dept Biol Sci, Edward J Meeman Biol Stn, Memphis, TN 38152 USA.
19Univ Memphis, Ctr Biodivers Res, Memphis, TN 38152 USA.
20Univ Azores, Inst Marine Sci OKEANOS, P-9901862 Horta, Portugal.
21James Cook Univ, Coll Sci & Engn, Dept Zool & Ecol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
22Australian Natl Univ, Sch Biol, Div Ecol & Evolut Res, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
23Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski Univ Warsaw, Inst Biol Sci, Dept Environm Conservat, PL-01938 Warsaw, Poland.
24Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Dept Biol, Richmond, VA 23284 USA.
25Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Ctr Environm Studies, Richmond, VA 23284 USA.
26Univ Cape Town, FitzPatrick Inst African Ornithol, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa.
27Univ Porto, Res Network Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol InBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources CIBIO, Lab Associado, P-4485601 Vairao, Portugal.
28Univ Lisbon, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources CIBIO, Res Network Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol InBIO, Lab Associado,Inst Super Agron, P-1349017 Lisbon, Portugal.
29Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources CIBIO, BIOPOLIS Program Genom Biodivers & Land Planning, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal.
30Univ Haifa, Shamir Res Inst, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel.
31Univ Haifa, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel.
32Natl Acad Sci Belarus, Sci & Pract Ctr Biol Resources, Lab Ornithol, Minsk 220072, BELARUS.
33Univ Wroclaw, Fac Biol Sci, Dept Behav Ecol, PL-50335 Wroclaw, Poland.
34Bates Coll, Biol Dept, Lewiston, ME 04240 USA.
35Cardiff Univ, Sch Biosci, Div Organisms & Environm, Cardiff CF10 3AX, Wales.
36Univ Extremadura, Dept Anat Cellular Biol & Zool, E-506071 Badajoz, Spain.
37Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Ctr Ecol Aplicada Litoral, Lab Biol Conservac, RA-3400 Corrientes, Argentina.
38Natl Acad Sci, Lab Mol Zool, Minsk 220072, BELARUS.
39Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Dept Ecol Evolut, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico.
40British Antarctic Survey, Nat Environm Res Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England.
41Univ Turku, Dept Biol, Turku 20014, Finland.
42Dept Agr Water & Environm, Australian Antarctic Div, Kingston, Tas 7050, Australia.
43Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Biol, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
44CSIC, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Dept Evolutionary Ecol, E-28006 Madrid, Spain.
45Tomsk State Univ, Zool Museum, Dept Museum Technol, Tomsk 634050, Russia.
46Russian Acad Sci, Far Eastern Branch, Inst Biol Problems North, Magadan 685000, Russia.
47Univ Konstanz, Dept Biol, D-78457 Constance, Germany.
48Univ Konstanz, Ctr Adv Study Collect Behav, D-78457 Constance, Germany.
49Max Planck Inst Anim Behav, Dept Collect Behav, D-78457 Constance, Germany.
50UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland.
51Univ Illinois, Prairie Res Inst, Illinois Nat Hist Survey, Urbana, IL 61820 USA.
52Poznan Univ Life Sci, Inst Zool, PL-60625 Poznan, Poland.
53Novia Univ Appl Sci, Bioecon Res Team, FI-10600 Raseborg, Finland.
54Lund Univ, Dept Biol, Evolutionary Ecol Unit, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden.
55Univ Calif Berkeley, Hastings Reservat, Carmel Valley, CA 93924 USA.
56Cornell Univ, Cornell Lab Ornithol, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA.
57Polish Acad Sci, Inst Biochem & Biophys, PL-02106 Warsaw, Poland.
58Univ Latvia, Fac Biol, Dept Zool & Anim Ecol, LV-1004 Riga, Latvia.
59Daugavpils Univ, Dept Biotechnol, LV-5401 Daugavpils, Latvia.
60Univ Tartu, Inst Ecol & Earth Sci, Dept Zool, EE-51010 Tartu, Estonia.
61Ezemvelo KwaZulu Natal Wildlife, Conservat Serv Div, ZA-3202 Cascades, South Africa.
62Univ KwaZulu Natal, Ctr Funct Biodivers, Sch Life Sci, ZA-3201 Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
63Tomsk State Univ, Dept Vertebrate Zool & Ecol, Tomsk 634050, Russia.
64Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, Scotland.
65Grand Valley State Univ, Biol Dept, Allendale, MI 49401 USA.
66Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, Ecol Systemat Evolut, F-91190 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
67Voronezh State Univ, Dept Zool & Parasitol, Voronezh 394006, Russia.
68CSIC, Ctr Estudis Acancats Blanes CEAB, Theoret & Computat Ecol Lab, Blanes 17300, Spain.
69Abo Akad Univ, Environm & Marine Biol, Turku 20500, Finland.
70Novia Univ Appl Sci, FI-10600 Raseborg, Finland.
71Univ Helsinki, Dept Biosci, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland.
72Univ Rey Juan Carlos, Dept Biol & Geol, Mostoles 28933, Spain.
73CSIC, Estn Biol Donana, Seville 41092, Spain.
74Univ Eastern Finland, Dept Environm & Biol Sci, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland.
75Grp Etud & Protect Busards GepB, F-52110 Beurville, France.
76Univ Groningen, Arctic Ctr, NL-9718 CW Groningen, Netherlands.
77Justus Liebig Univ, Dept Anim Ecol & Systemat, D-35392 Giessen, Germany.
78Univ Coimbra, Marine & Environm Sci Ctr MARE, Dept Life Sci, P-3000456 Coimbra, Portugal.
79Univ Wisconsin Stevens Point, Dept Biol, Stevens Point, WI 54481 USA.
80Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
81Columbia Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Environm Biol, New York, NY 10027 USA.
82Univ Bern, Inst Ecol & Evolut, Div Conservat Biol, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
83Museu Ciencies Nat Barcelona, Dept Vertebrats, Barcelona 08003, Spain.
84Luontotutkimus Solonen Oy, FI-00960 Helsinki, Finland.
85Panurus Monitoringi Inwentaryzacje Opinie Przyrod, PL-64113 Osieczna, Poland.
86Univ Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Stn, Sch Biol Sci, Cromarty IV11 8YL, Scotland.
87Univ Vet Med, Konrad Lorenz Inst Ethol, A-1160 Vienna, Austria.
88Eotvos Lorand Univ, Behav Ecol Grp, Dept Systemat Zool & Ecol, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
89Eotvos Lorand Univ, Hungarian Nat Hist Museum, Eotvos Lorand Res Network, Integrat Ecol Res Grp, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
90Netherlands Inst Ecol, Dept Anim Ecol, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands.
91James Cook Univ, Coll Sci & Engn, Dept Phys Sci, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
92Univ Kentucky, Dept Biol, Lexington, KY 40506 USA.
93Bowdoin Coll, Dept Biol, Brunswick, ME 04011 USA.
94Marie Curie Sklodowska Univ, Inst Biol Sci, Dept Zool & Nat Protect, PL-20033 Lublin, Poland.
95Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Biol, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5E2, Canada.
96Polish Acad Sci, Inst Nat Conservat, PL-31120 Krakow, Poland.
97Szczecin Univ, Dept Vertebrate Zool & Anthropol, PL-71415 Szczecin, Poland.
98Czech Univ Life Sci Prague, Fac Environm Sci, Dept Ecol, Prague 16521, Czech Republic.
99UCLM, JCCM, CSIC, Inst Game & Wildlife Res,IREC, E-13005 Ciudad Real, Spain.
100CSIC, Pyrenean Inst Ecol, Jaca 22700, Spain.
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 8.2 MB)
Persistent link: http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe20230921135260
Language: English
Published: National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023
Publish Date: 2023-09-21
Description:

Abstract

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few stud-ies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to repro-ductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

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Series: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
ISSN-E: 1091-6490
ISSN-L: 0027-8424
Volume: 120
Issue: 19
Article number: e2208389120
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2208389120
OADOI: https://oadoi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208389120
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1172 Environmental sciences
Subjects:
birds
climate change
meta-analysis
offspring production
Article
Funding: This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.
Copyright information: © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/