Projection of future meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran
|Author:||Ghazi, Babak1; Dutt, Sanjana2; Torabi Haghighi, Ali3|
1Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Jurija Gagarina 11, 87-100 Toruń, Poland
2Department of Geomatics and Cartography, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Jurija Gagarina 11, 87-100 Toruń, Poland
3Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Pentti Kaiteran katu 1, P.O. Box 8000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
|Online Access:||PDF Full Text (PDF, 2.5 MB)|
|Persistent link:|| http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe20230925137139
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute,
|Publish Date:|| 2023-09-25
Future changes (2015–2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more “Extremely dry” events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of “Extremely dry” months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of “Extremely wet” months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues.
|Type of Publication:||
A1 Journal article – refereed
|Field of Science:||
218 Environmental engineering
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).