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Active layer thickness and permafrost area projections for the 21st century |
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| Author: | Peng, Xiaoqing1,2; Zhang, Tingjun1,2; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.3; |
| Organizations: |
1Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China 2Observation and Research Station on Eco-Environment of Frozen Ground in the Qilian Mountains, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China 3Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
4School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
5Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China 6Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 7State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China 8Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland 9Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland |
| Format: | article |
| Version: | published version |
| Access: | open |
| Online Access: | PDF Full Text (PDF, 3.1 MB) |
| Persistent link: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe20230927137636 |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
John Wiley & Sons,
2023
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| Publish Date: | 2023-09-27 |
| Description: |
AbstractPermafrost warming leads to greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. Earth >system models indicate that more than 80% of the near-surface permafrost is projected to disappear by the end of this century, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Here, we apply the Stefan solution to estimate permafrost degradation under future emission scenarios. We find that the most severe future scenario is likely to lead to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near-surface permafrost at 3.5 m depth, and an area extent decrease of 1.3% at a depth of 6.0 m. Relative to active layer thickness increases from historical simulations, we find a less than 30% deepening for most permafrost regions by the end of this century. These results imply that the Stefan solution provides near-surface permafrost area extent degradation estimates that are substantially lower than directly projected by models. see all
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| Series: |
Earth's future |
| ISSN: | 2328-4277 |
| ISSN-E: | 2328-4277 |
| ISSN-L: | 2328-4277 |
| Volume: | 11 |
| Issue: | 8 |
| Article number: | e2023EF003573 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2023EF003573 |
| OADOI: | https://oadoi.org/10.1029/2023EF003573 |
| Type of Publication: |
A1 Journal article – refereed |
| Field of Science: |
519 Social and economic geography 1172 Environmental sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Funding: |
Support for this study came from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0607003), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 42161160328, 42171120, 41941015, 32061143032), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (lzujbky-2021-72, lzujbky-2023-eyt01), and the Academy of Finland (Grants 315519, 307761). |
| Academy of Finland Grant Number: |
315519 |
| Detailed Information: |
315519 (Academy of Finland Funding decision) |
| Copyright information: |
© 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |