University of Oulu

Kolstad, I., Karim, A., Lujala, P. et al. Expert adoption of composite indices: a randomized experiment on migrant resettlement decisions in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 119, 261–297 (2023).

Expert adoption of composite indices : a randomized experiment on migrant resettlement decisions in Bangladesh

Saved in:
Author: Kolstad, Ivar1,2; Karim, Azreen3; Lujala, Päivi2,4;
Organizations: 1Department of Accounting, Auditing and Law, Norwegian School of Economics, Helleveien 30, 5045 Bergen, Norway
2Chr. Michelsen Institute, Bergen, Norway
3Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh
4Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 8000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
Format: article
Version: published version
Access: open
Online Access: PDF Full Text (PDF, 1 MB)
Persistent link:
Language: English
Published: Springer Nature, 2023
Publish Date: 2023-10-18


In settings where complex social decisions are made, information is often aggregated into indices to facilitate decision making. The value added of such composite indices depends, inter alia, on the extent to which decision makers trust and make use of them. This paper presents a randomized experiment on the use of an index designed to inform migrant resettlement decisions, using 410 graduate students in Bangladesh as respondents. Respondents were randomly assigned to control and treatment conditions. In the control group, respondents faced a discrete choice experiment where they were asked to allocate 1000 migrants between two locations described by five attributes (availability of cropland, distance to hospital, distance to school, poverty incidence, frequency of floods, droughts and cyclones). In the treatment group, respondents also had access to the migrant resettlement index for the two locations. Results show that the resettlement index is used by the respondents, and mechanism analyses suggest this is due to perceptions of improved benefits to costs from using the index to make decisions. Results from the control group also suggest that past adverse environmental events are particularly important for resettlement decisions, but less so for respondents who grew up in areas where such events were frequent.

see all

Series: Natural hazards
ISSN: 0921-030X
ISSN-E: 1573-0840
ISSN-L: 0921-030X
Volume: 119
Issue: 1
Pages: 261 - 297
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06056-0
Type of Publication: A1 Journal article – refereed
Field of Science: 1171 Geosciences
519 Social and economic geography
Funding: Open access funding provided by Norwegian School Of Economics. Funding from the Research Council of Norway (Grant Number 274702) and the Eudaimonia Institute is gratefully acknowledged.
Copyright information: © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit