Hulkkonen, M., Kaaronen, R.O., Kokkola, H. et al. Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: From pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality. Ambio 52, 976–994 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8
Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting : from pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality
|Author:||Hulkkonen, Mira1; Kaaronen, Roope O.2; Kokkola, Harri3;|
1Nano and Molecular Systems Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. BOX 8000, 90014, Oulu, Finland
2Past Present Sustainability Research Unit, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, University of Helsinki, Viikinkaari 1, P.O. BOX 65, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
3Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute, 70211, Kuopio, Finland
4Faculty of Science, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki, 00101, Helsinki, Finland
5Atmospheric Composition Research Unit, Finnish Meteorological Institute, 00101, Helsinki, Finland
6Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority (HSY), 00066, Helsinki, Finland
|Online Access:||PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.4 MB)|
|Persistent link:|| http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe20231103142875
|Publish Date:|| 2023-11-03
Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios (–23%, –32%and –36%, correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.
Ambio. A journal of the human environment
|Pages:||976 - 994|
|Type of Publication:||
A1 Journal article – refereed
|Field of Science:||
1172 Environmental sciences
This work was supported by the Academy of Finland Grant No. 335562. RK acknowledges funding by the Academy of Finland (grant No. 338558) and Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS postdoctoral grant). Open Access funding provided by University of Oulu including Oulu University Hospital.
Ó The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.