Abstract

Biodiversity conservation through protected areas (PAs) is often based on the idea that biodiversity is relatively static. This assumption is increasingly being challenged as species and communities shift their distributions in response to changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence on the performance of PAs over decades is still sparse or lacking from several environments, although it is needed to understand species dynamics, support modelling of PA performance, assist PA management and ultimately, to achieve global biodiversity conservation goals. In 2021, we resurveyed vegetation of five boreal habitat types (heath forests, paludified forests, sun-exposed sites, mires and eulittoral sites) in Rokua National Park in Finland, where one of the conservation targets is to preserve the flora characteristic of the area. The study sites were originally surveyed in 1945‐49, just before the National Park was established. Study sites have also remained free from the disturbances (forest fires and reindeer grazing) typical of boreal regions. We show that the compositional similarity of plant communities between habitat types has increased over time and is associated with the increase of forest species in several habitat types and the loss of many habitat-specific species. Drivers of change were most often linked to ongoing succession (understory closure) and changes in moisture conditions. Our results suggest that without natural disturbance or appropriate management efforts, the original conservation targets may be compromised over the decades. Our study demonstrates that resurvey of historical vegetation data can be effectively used to estimate long-term PA performance, helping to fill in missing temporal evidence.