Estimating the impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s import demand of bovine meat
1University of Oulu, Oulu Business School, Department of Economics, Economics
|Online Access:||PDF Full Text (PDF, 1.3 MB)|
|Persistent link:|| http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202102191203
Oulu : J. Rytkönen,
|Publish Date:|| 2021-02-19
|Thesis type:||Master's thesis
On 23rd of June 2016 the United Kingdom (UK) held The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum on the question whether the country should remain in the European Union (EU). The result was that the UK decided to exit from the European Union. This event was coined as Brexit.
The primary objective of this Thesis is to estimate the impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s import demand for bovine meat. In order to estimate the impact an econometric time series model is used to capture the unit price and income elasticities of import demand. The specific model used is Autoregressive Distibuted Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM). The results of the model are used to analyse possible impacts of different Brexit scenarios. The time series is based on annual data from 1993 until 2018. The data was collected from EUROSTAT, UN COMTRADE and UK government sources.
The results of the model were used to analyse possible impacts of Brexit. The results show that bovine meat imports from the EU are quite inelastic. The results from the thesis can be used to indicate possible magnitude of the changes due to Brexit. In order to capture better estimates for the impact of Brexit the elasticities gained from the Thesis could be utilized in a general- or partial equilibrium models.
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